Yes, we can predict the beginning of Ramadan with high accuracy using science, though the official “religious” start often depends on tradition.
Because the Islamic calendar is lunar, the start of Ramadan moves about 10–12 days earlier each year on the Gregorian calendar. For 2026, for example, we are currently in the window where these predictions are being confirmed.
Here is how the prediction works and why it sometimes changes:
1. The Scientific Method: Astronomical Calculations
Astronomers can calculate the exact “birth” of a new moon (the conjunction) years in advance. They look for three specific criteria to predict if the crescent will be visible:
Elongation: The moon must be far enough from the sun (usually >8°) so its light isn’t washed out.
Altitude: The moon needs to be high enough above the horizon at sunset.
Lag Time: The moon must stay in the sky for a certain amount of time (usually 20–45 minutes) after the sun sets.
Current Prediction for 2026: Most astronomical data suggests Ramadan will likely begin on Thursday, February 19, 2026. While the “new moon” is born on Feb 17, it will be too low and too young to see in most of the world until the evening of Feb 18.
2. The Traditional Method: Moon Sighting (Ru’yat al-Hilal)
Despite precise math, many countries (like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Morocco) still rely on physical sightings. On the 29th day of the preceding month (Sha’ban), committees go out to look for the crescent.
If sighted: Ramadan begins the next morning.
If not sighted (due to clouds or position): They complete 30 days of the current month, and Ramadan starts the day after.
3. Why Predictions Sometimes “Fail”
You might notice different dates being announced for several reasons:
Geographic Location: The moon might be visible in the Americas but not in Asia on the same night.
Calculation vs. Sight: Some organizations (like the Fiqh Council of North America) use pre-calculated dates for planning, while others wait for a human witness.
Local Policy: Some countries follow Saudi Arabia’s announcement, while others insist on a local sighting within their own borders.
Method and Expected Start Date for Ramadan 2026
Astronomical Prediction: February 19, 2026
Global/Administrative (Umm al-Qura): February 18, 2026
Traditional Sighting: Confirmed on evening of Feb 17 or 18